During the October meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC), a decision was made that was consistent with the expectations of most experts. Interest rates will remain at 5.75%, which means continuation of the current monetary policy.
President of the National Bank of Poland prof. Adam Glapiński (NBP)
The Monetary Policy Council's decision to maintain the main reference rate at 5.75%. This is the next meeting in a row during which no decisions were made to introduce any changes. Market experts did not expect any modifications in monetary policy, which was confirmed by pre-meeting analyses.
Inflation is still a problem
In their comments on the decision, experts point out that inflation in Poland, after a gradual decline in 2023 and early 2024, has been increasing again since March. In September, it reached 4.9% compared to the previous year. Analysts predict a further increase in inflation, which may reach around 6% at the beginning of next year.
Factors affecting inflation
Experts point to several factors that may support the increase in inflation, including the unfreezing of energy prices and possible increases in the prices of energy raw materials, especially in the context of the unstable situation in the Middle East. Although the current prices of fuel and gas on the market are relatively low, which limits inflationary pressure, there is no room to reduce interest rates in the near future.
Future of monetary policy
Analysts predict that potential decisions on changes in interest rates may be made next year, depending on the further development of inflation and new forecasts that will be announced in November. Maintaining interest rates at the current level indicates the continuation of cautious monetary policy by the MPC, which takes into account both the current economic situation and forecasts regarding inflation and economic growth in the coming months.
Source: money.pl
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